• Fast Break Stats

Inaugural Season Recap

Well, we made it. We officially survived the NCAA college basketball regular season without being too thrown off by Covid-19. Roughly 3,800 Division 1 basketball games were played this year which is about 1,000 less than other years. This was to be expected with certain conferences not playing at all (Ivy League), and teams having long layoffs (Michigan, Baylor, SMU, Cincinnati). This was also the first year that Fast Break Stats fully published and provided betting recommendations as a website.

It was quite the year to say the least. We started the year with $500 set aside for betting and the plan to bet $10 on every moneyline that our model recommended. We are going to run through all the different metrics around our betting this season.

This season we bet on 892 games, averaging 10 bets per day. That means there was a total of $8,920 wagered this year. Some of you may be thinking, "Then how did you start the year with only $500?" Great question. Because a college basketball game is only 2 hours long, every winning bet has a small waiting period before you get paid out. Using our algorithm, we were able make every bet because on the busiest days (Saturdays), you would only have ~30 bets to make, which is only 60% of the current bankroll.

Our algorithm is built to only suggest bets that have a 10% ROI. We ended the season very close to that number with an 8.3% ROI per game. While that may not seem impressive only making $.80 per $10 bet, that adds up very quick when you bet on a lot of games. We ended the regular season with a bankroll of $1,230, which is a profit of $730. That turns out to be 146% growth over the span of 89 days.

The Fun Numbers:

Correct Picks:

We correctly picked 525 games, which is 59%. This number isn't very important though, because these are moneyline bets. Betting correctly on high profit games has much more value than low profit games. For example, getting 5 games correct at -150 odds means a profit of $25, which is the same as one game with +250 odds.

Best Day in Terms of ROI:

February 25 at 300% ROI. 2 Big 10 underdogs paid out at $60.

Worst Day in Terms of ROI:

December 21 is the only day all season where we didn't get a single pick correct, meaning an ROI of 0%.

Most Bets in a Single Day:

We bet on 38 games on February 27th. There were 112 games that day, so we bet on just over 33% of the games that were played.

Largest Daily Payout:

Also on February 27th, where we earned a total payout of $474 on those 38 games.

Largest Individual Game Payouts:

Largest Odds Placed:

On January 2nd, we suggested San Jose State +3,000 at Boise State. It was a heartbreaker because Boise State won on a buzzer beater. Talk about getting your hopes up for nothing...

Worst Losses:

Truly unexplainable.

Best Teams to Bet On:

Portland was an obvious top choice with a +110 win, but I was really surprised to see these teams range from Power 5 schools, down to mid-major and small conference teams, like Sacred Heart.

Best Teams to Bet Against:

HAMMER whoever is playing these teams.

Most Frequently Bet Teams:

The craziest one on this list is SIUE (Southern Illinois Edwardsville). We suggested 8 picks and they only won 2 of those games. That is absolute garbage.

Most Frequent Opposing Teams:

Any team playing Evansville is typically around -300 odds, which makes sense due to their 0-18 conference record last season. However, they managed to squeak out more wins than expected this year. More importantly, NEVER BET AGAINST TOM IZZO! The man lives for two things: March and ruining moneylines.

Worst Team to Bet Against:

Northern Iowa had 3 games as the opponent and won all 3. Avoid the panthers. If you are a KU fan, you know this all too well. SMH Ali Farokhmanesh.

Final Thoughts

This season proved to be a fruitful one for Fast Break Stats, and a great way to kickoff the company. We have been building this site over the span of 3 years (history blog post coming soon), so seeing the hard work pay off was very exciting for us. Let's keep this momentum going into March Madness as well as our transition to NBA Betting!


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